Abstract Manager

Project risk management is an integral component of ongoing project management of transportation projects. Quantitative risk analysis, also referred to as Risk Based Cost and Schedule Assessment (RBCSA), uses Monte Carlo simulation as a way of estimating the probability that a project will meet its cost and schedule objectives, and is based on a simultaneous evaluation of the impacts of all identified and quantified project risks. Results from RBCSA are used to better inform budget and schedule decision on transportation projects and provide a framework for monitoring project risks throughout the life of the project, from planning through to design and construction. The objective of this presentation is to provide a brief overview of the RBCSA process and how its key outcomes, Risk Based Cost and Schedule Estimate Graphs and the Risk Register, are used to benefit Owners in the planning, design and construction of transportation projects. The presentation will provide examples of how the estimate outcomes have informed business case decisions for Owners on large scale bridge replacement projects with respect to allocating project funding, selecting the project delivery model and communicating realistic project completion target dates. The presenters will also demonstrate how RBCSA was used to assist in the further assessment and evaluation of two competing alternatives for a large scale bridge replacement during the planning phase of the project. There will also be a discussion and example on the benefits of using the Risk Register as a living document to effectively monitor project risks during the design and construction phase of the project through regularly scheduled reviews and updates of project risks. The presentation will also include a discussion on potential gaps in RBCSA studies that may need to be addressed to better capture risk associated with sustainable transportation items such as accommodation of future Automated Vehicles/Connected Vehicles, consideration for multi-modes and impacts of climate change.