Abstract Manager

High levels of uncertainty have always been “baked into” transportation forecasts.  This was well-understood by travel modellers, though this may not always have been adequately conveyed to other planners and policy makers,  What has become apparent, even to a lay audience, is that predicting the future has become vastly more complicated due to extreme uncertainty.  Both climate change and the residual impacts of the COVID-19 virus are likely to impact medium and long-term transportation forecasts in ways that cannot be fully captured with traditional forecasting tools and techniques.

Fortunately, there are a number of useful tools and approaches that can explore uncertainty about the future.  Mott MacDonald has developed a suite of tools embedded in a broader strategic outlook towards capturing the sources of future uncertainty.  Futures is Mott MacDonald’s proprietary tool for community engagement which enables agencies and community organizations to plan for a more resilient and equitable future.

There are six stages in evaluating a project using Futures:
1. Gearing up
2. Preferred futures
3. Opening out
4. Options
5. Closing down 
6. Review

The driving idea behind this tool is that by exploring a number of future alternatives based on different policy alternatives one can predict where they lead and, critically, align policies with a desired future -- or at least steer away from a clearly undesirable future.

One recent example of Futures in use is Norwich UK where the Norfolk County Council (NCC) was looking to reduce private vehicle use in Greater Norwich. A one-day workshop was held with stakeholders from across Greater Norwich to identify a Preferred Future with an emphasis on shared. Using the Futures Toolkit – Mott Macdonald facilitated a discussion on the Shared Future Mobility for the City of Norwich. The use of the Futures Toolkit in the planning process helped bring together many different actors to the table, helping facilitate a discussion for a resilient, efficient, equitable and environmentally sustainable future for Norwich.  Other applications of Futures involved Delphi-based analysis and future horizon scans for Environment Agency UK and developing scenario foresight tools to the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) UK.  As with the application of Futures in Greater Norwich, thinking through the implications of government policies and their contribution to a “preferred future” is a critical first step in trying to understand and then shape the future.