Abstract Manager

Infrastructure mega projects are expensive, disruptive, and risky social propositions. In an auto-dominant society, major transit investment proposals are subject to a much higher burden of proof than other infrastructure investments such as highways. This is despite transit’s critical role in reducing climate impacts and supporting equitable growth. In Ontario, municipal and provincial transit planning bodies have adopted a business case model to appraise higher-order transit proposals, where the Initial Business Case (IBC) assesses one or more investment options against a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Oftentimes, however, BAU is conflated as “do nothing” which can result in an incomplete understanding of the (dis)benefits, costs, and risk of that scenario. This can have the unintended consequence of artificially raising the bar for advancing a given transit investment option over BAU. This presentation will demonstrate how this status quo bias was addressed in the preparation of the IBC for the proposed Eglinton East LRT in Scarborough.

Scarborough is an amalgamated borough of the City of Toronto. As with many places developed in the post-war era, it was subject to the auto-dependent planning approaches of the time. Due to its proximity to Toronto’s downtown, yet its relative affordability, Scarborough is home to many immigrants and low-income households. Toronto’s rapid transit network is designed primarily as a hub-and-spoke system from the City’s downtown, leaving many transit-dependent people with precarious travel situations during network disruptions. Transit improvements are critical in suburban landscapes to provide modal choices and improve livability. A renewed focus on improving inter- and intra-suburb mobility can improve economic opportunities for equity-seeking individuals that have been priced out of areas of greater economic activity.

Local transit in Toronto is typically provided by buses in a grid-based network connected to the rapid transit network, Scarborough is no exception. However, the Scarborough bus network is often overcrowded and unreliable. In 2020, the City installed curbside bus lanes to support heavy bus traffic connecting from the terminus of the rapid transit network to the University of Toronto Scarborough Campus. Nonetheless, future growth will require further transit investment as the BAU scenario cannot practically meet ridership demand.

An updated business case for the Eglinton East LRT took a new approach that analysed the cost of the BAU scenario more thoroughly. This distinction provides a more objective analysis and ensures that Scarborough transit riders would not once again be the victim of overpromised and underdelivered transit expansion.