Abstract Manager

The effective management of traffic during a nuclear emergency evacuation is a critical component of ensuring the safety and well-being of affected populations. The context of the Pickering and Darlington nuclear power generation stations, operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is unique, because of its close proximity to dense urban and suburban areas, and a high population density surrounding them. In response to potential nuclear incidents, the Provincial Nuclear Emergency Response Plan (PNERP) has been developed to protect the health, safety, welfare, and property of Ontario residents.

The primary tool that has been developed for this project is a Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area wide mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment model in Aimsun. This modeling tool incorporates all major roadways within the region and has been first calibrated to reflect base conditions. Thereafter, numerous scenarios representing different nuclear emergency situations, with varying times of day, seasons, and locations, have been evaluated using this model. One of the primary outputs of this process is to get a reasonable estimate of evacuation travel estimates (ETEs) for evacuees for each scenario.

This modeling tool has been used to strategically design and designate a variety of traffic management strategies and traffic control points by phase, such as the closure of certain on- and off-ramps along critical freeway corridors, to ensure that evacuees can be quickly mobilized and travel without excessive gridlock and network-wide congestion on their routes to safety. The modeling tool has allowed the development of insight into the most effective ways to combat congestion at critical areas and promote the movement of outbound traffic flows from the nuclear generation sites, and inbound towards areas of safety, including designated reception centres.

This presentation discusses the process of model development, calibration and validation for large modeling areas, the tools used to develop the required traffic management strategies, challenges and issues with model processing and runtimes, tools to measure traffic evacuation progress, transit evacuation strategies, policy testing, and the process of how best to use and incorporate real-time traffic monitoring data in the development of an innovative emergency evacuation traffic management plan (TMP).