Abstract Manager

Many remote and northern communities do not have access to all weather transportation networks, and rely on Canada’s 8,000+ km of winter road system. Winter roads are constructed only when the ground and waterways have frozen to sufficient depth to safely support vehicle traffic. Canada has one of the longest winter road networks in the world, providing vital linkages for remote communities in the Northwest Territories, and the provinces of Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Winter roads are highly dependent on climate factors such as air temperature and snow. In light of increasingly warmer and unpredictable winters, there is concern that in the near future, the operational season for some of the roads may not be long enough to transport fuel, food, and other essential goods. Remote communities will experience health and safety and socio-economic impacts with partial or complete winter road failures. In many cases, the only alternative is delivery by air with a significantly greater time delay and cost. This is the second phase of National Research Council of Canada’s multi-year research to develop a data-driven framework to systematically review, assess, and quantify the vulnerability of the winter roads to climate change. This framework is based on correlating historical opening and closing dates of the winter road system in the last decade with freezing index as a proxy for winter severity. This approach indirectly considers how the effect of non-weather parameters such as the availability of proper construction equipment and techniques may influence the length of operating seasons. The established correlation is then used with climate models to estimate the length of operating seasons under various future climate scenarios.  During this phase of the research, case studies of route segments from the provinces of Ontario, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are examined in detail and leveraging the extensive knowledge and experience of field leaders. This paper will discuss the data, the analytical method, and present the result of the analysis.