Abstract Manager

This paper describes a decision-making framework for adaptive design and management of bridges against scour, facing deep uncertainties of climate change. Current climate change models result in a range of projections. While a mild climate change scenario might require almost no adaptation, in case of the realization of a severe climate change, doing nothing can be found problematic as it might result in higher management costs or even catastrophic failures. On the contrary, the realization of a mild or moderate environment after costly bridge modifications or early adoption of costly adaptation measures would also result in a sense of loss. Another option is resorting to adaptive solutions beginning with a less expensive option until the actual environmental situation is more evident. Willing to minimize the maximum sense of loss, In the methodology applied here, regret is implemented in the decision-making framework, which quantifies the desire of decision-makers to minimize the sense of loss associated with having made the wrong decision. The proposed framework is illustrated for designing a bridge in BC, Canada, where the design options include the height of the freeboard and the depth or presence of deep foundations, and adaptation measures include (i) placement of rock riprap; (ii) more closely controlled local scour protection; (iii) river training works; and (iv) structural upgrading of the foundations by sheet-piling or other means. Following the demonstration of the methodology, sensitivity studies are performed and conditions under which each of the options becomes more suitable are determined.