Submission ID 118345
| Issue/Objective | Malaria poses a persistent threat to global health, heavily influenced by climate variability, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Rwanda faces significant malaria-related challenges exacerbated by changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climatic factors on malaria transmission dynamics from January 2012 to December 2021, highlighting the importance of climate-informed interventions for global health security and preparedness. |
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| Methodology/Approach | The study was conducted across all 30 districts of Rwanda, integrating meteorological and malaria incidence data from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency's 71 strategically located stations and Rwanda's Health Management Information System (HMIS) respectively. A two-stage analytic approach was applied. Initially, district-specific generalized linear models (GLM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution were coupled with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to capture both the non-linear relationships and delayed effects of climatic exposures on malaria transmission. In the second stage, random-effects multivariate meta-analysis pooled district-level estimates, subsequently refined through Best Linear Unbiased Predictions (BLUPs). Sensitivity analyses considered various temporal lags (1-3 months) and trend adjustments, ensuring robustness and accuracy in capturing climatic influences on malaria incidence across diverse geographical and climatic contexts. |
| Results | The results demonstrated associations between climatic factors and malaria incidence in Rwanda. Notably, average temperatures around 18.5°C substantially elevated malaria transmission risk, while higher average temperatures exceeding 23.9°C mitigated this risk. Rainfall exhibited a distinct dual-effect pattern: moderate rainfall (87-223 mm per month) was consistently correlated with increased malaria incidence, suggesting optimal vector breeding conditions. In contrast, lower rainfall conditions (<73 mm per month) and excessive rainfall (>223 mm per month) markedly decreased malaria risk. Seasonal trends revealed that incidence peaked during Rwanda's major rainy seasons (March-May, September-November), highlighting the seasonal vulnerability of populations to malaria transmission. Notable district-level heterogeneity in malaria-climate relationships was observed. |
| Discussion/Conclusion | The study underscores the critical influence of climatic factors on malaria dynamics in Rwanda, advocating for integrating climate-informed approaches into malaria control strategies. Findings highlight the need for scalable and adaptive interventions tailored to district-specific climatic conditions, bridging climatic risk insights with practical health policy and programmatic actions to improve local preparedness and global health security. |
| Presenters and affiliations | Felix Kitema Rubuga Centre for Impact, Innovation and Capacity Building for Health Information Systems and Nutrition and University of Rwanda Sera Francesco Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy Ayman Ahmed Rwanda Biomedical Center Guéladio Cissé Swiss TPH |
