Submission ID 117537
| Issue/Objective | Pandemics disrupt the global economy. Identifying the pathways through which diseases spread across countries informs the design and implementation of policies to reduce the speed of spread of an outbreak from one country to another. In this study, we investigate the transmission pattern of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to 128 countries. |
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| Methodology/Approach | The gravity model of economics is applied to model the spread of the COVID-19 across countries. In addition to correlation between variables, ordinary least squares and probit regression models are applied to 128 countries' COVID-19 datasets sourced from the World Health Organisation and World Development Indicators. A cross-sectional analyses are carried out. |
| Results | We find evidence of an increase in the economic activities of the disease-exporting country to slow the spread of the disease to the disease-importing country. In contrast, an increase in the economic activities of the importing country speeds up the spread of the disease to the importing country. The exporting-country's economic activity effect (-0.278) is found to be three times larger than the importing-country's economic activity effect (0.076). A shrunk economic activities could compel some residents to relocate to non-contagious countries to spread the disease. Also, we find evidence of a country's proximity to another country has a positive effect (0.158) on the spread of the COVID-19 across countries. |
| Discussion/Conclusion | An outbreak is likely to spread faster (slower) from a shrinking (booming) economy to a booming (shrinking) economy and faster (slower) when there is a short (long) distance between the countries. A policy implication is that, since every country is a potential disease-exporting country, while ensuring the health and safety of people and reducing the transmission rate of an outbreak in a country, facilities should be provided to enable the residents to engage in their economic activities to help reduce the adverse economic consequences of the outbreak that compel some residents to relocate to non-contagious countries. |
| Presenters and affiliations | Albert Opoku Frimpong Department of Social Policy and Security Studies, Bonn Rhein Sieg University of Applied Sciences Kwadwo Arhin Department of Economics Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development Micheal Kofi Boachie Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard College Campus Kwame Acheampong Department of Economics Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development Albert Opoku Frimpong Department of Social Policy and Security Studies, Bonn Rhein Sieg University of Applied Sciences Kwadwo Arhin Department of Economics Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development Micheal Kofi Boachie Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard College Campus Kwame Acheampong Department of Economics Education, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development |
