Submission ID 116978
| Issue/Objective | The 2024 mpox outbreak in non-endemic countries underscored the threat it poses on global health security. Identifying its drivers is essential for guiding epidemic preparedness strategies. Thus, this study investigated the effect of viral clade, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and population density on the 2024 mpox epidemic across Africa. |
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| Methodology/Approach | We conducted a retrospective ecological study using national-level mpox surveillance data from 20 mpox-affected African countries from January through December 2024. Predictors included viral clades (Clade I, Clade II, Undefined), GDP per capita (United States dollar [US$]), and population density (inhabitant/km²). A negative binomial regression model estimated the incidence rates ratio (IRR) [95% confidence interval] to assess the association of these predictors with mpox incidence and mortality. Random forest models were conducted as an alternative approach to validate findings. |
| Results | Clade II was associated with lower mpox incidence (IRR = 0.15 [0.02-0.97]) and mortality (IRR = 0.09 [0.01-1.72]) compared to Clade I. GDP per capita showed a strong inverse relationship with mpox incidence, with each US$1,000 increase associated with a 95% reduction in cases count (IRR = 0.05 [0.38-0.74]). Population density was not significantly associated with mpox incidence or mortality. Random forest analysis confirmed GDP per capita as the strongest predictor of mpox burden. |
| Discussion/Conclusion | Viral strains and GDP per capita are significantly associated with the 2024 mpox epidemic in Africa. These findings suggest that countries with Clade I and lower GDP require heightened surveillance and intervention efforts, while strengthening healthcare infrastructure may be essential for future outbreak prevention and control. |
| Presenters and affiliations | Blondy KAYEMBE MULUMBA University of Bordeaux Anderson Kouabenan N'GATTIA National Institute of Public Hygiene Marie Roseline Darnycka BELIZAIRE WHO Blondy KAYEMBE MULUMBA University of Bordeaux |
